Takashi Yamaguchi
A real estate appraiser in Japan
T.Yamaguchi Essays in Idleness

  Notes of my
  studies/hypotheses are here.
  Please take a look!
   
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bubble
Reports of Value Works
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bubble-02
bubble-03
bubble
bubble

< Real Estate Bubble in Japan >

Japan suffered a heavy real estate bubble in the latter half of 1980s.
We frequently had following conversations in 1990s (in hindsight).
"Could the transition of land price have such a large gap against that of GDP?"
"Low interest rate would accelerate purchasing power in a short/mid-term, but not by 3, 4, or 8 times for a long-term."
"What caused the bubble?"

A heavy asset deflation followed after the bubble burst. It is called the Lost Decade.

<E.g.>
City Hotel: Construction cost was Y10,000 million. Disposal price was Y2,000 million.
Resort Hotel: Onerous sales of resort hotels of which business got worsened were sometimes difficult.
Super Market: Construction cost was Y7,000 million. Disposal price was Y300 million.
Golf Course: Development cost was Y15,000 million. Disposal price was Y1,000 million.
Ski Resort: Development cost was Y23,000 million. Disposal price was Y300 million.

JP-GDP JP-GPLP

< US Housing Bubble >

To our surprise, a real estate bubble repeated in USA, later.
Financial crisis damaged global economy. Why did it happen? I've been thinking about it.

US-GDP US-HP

< What was the Bubble? >

      [Animal Spirits]
      The cause of the bubble had been a mystery for a long time.
      But, when we look at us from the standpoint that we are lives,
                      its essential nature or underlying reality comes into our sight.
      Following studies started from new economic theories that make much of our spirits.
      Human inborn emotions play quite important roles in a bubble!       (by T. Yamaguchi)

        Click Here :  01. What Caused the Bubble? - Memories of a Bubble in Japan -

        Click Here :  02. What Caused the Bubble? - Swarm Intelligence -

        Click Here :  03. What Caused the Bubble? - Diffusion of Inflationary Expectations -

        Click Here :  04. What Caused the Bubble? - Genes of Speculation, Price, and Value -

        Click Here :  05. What Caused the Bubble? - Mechanism of a New Type Emergence -

        Click Here :  06. BOIDS and Inflationary Expectations